The UK population continues to grow, reaching an estimated 68.3 million in mid-2023, with international immigration now the primary driver of this growth.
Net interational migration has now passed the balance of births and deaths as the primary popularion growth driver, according to the latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In the past year, the UK’s population grew by approximately 1.0%, with net migration accounting for the majority of this increase.
The ONS attributes this trend to a combination of factors, including ongoing international migration patterns, a slowing birth rate, and an ageing population contributing to higher death rates.
The ONS data reveals that all four UK nations experienced population increases between mid-2022 and mid-2023.
England and Wales saw the fastest growth rates at 1.0%, followed by Scotland at 0.8% and Northern Ireland at 0.5%.
Net migration was the main contributor to population growth across all these regions.
Estimates of long-term international migration for England and Wales in the year ending June 2023 are derived from UK-level migration estimates published on 23 November 2023.
Experts are emphasizing the complex role that immigration plays in maintaining population stability, while also highlighting the challenges it brings, particularly in areas like housing, public services, and social cohesion.
Rob McNeil, Deputy Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford which provides independent, data-driven analysis of migration trends and policies in the UK highlights the complex role of immigration in the UK’s population dynamics.
According to McNeil, immigration plays a crucial role in addressing labour shortages in essential sectors like healthcare and social care, but it comes with a set of challenges.
McNeil said: “Immigration is essential for maintaining a workforce in critical sectors, such as social care.
“In the UK, low wages and poor working conditions in these areas have led to significant labour shortages.
“Without immigration, the country would face an even greater crisis in providing essential services to the elderly and vulnerable.”
McNeil points to the financial trade-offs that come with relying on migrant labour adding while immigration helps fill the gaps in the workforce, it also raises questions about how to fund public services.
“If the government were to increase wages to attract more British workers into sectors like social care, this would increase the cost of these services,” McNeil explained.
“These costs would either fall on the state or the individuals who are paying for care, putting further strain on an already stretched system.”
‘The government must make choices’
He argues the solution to the UK’s challenges lies in making difficult political decisions and balancing the need for immigration with improvements in working conditions and wages for local workers.
However, McNeil notes that these are complex issues with no easy answers.
He added: “The government must make choices, if they want to limit immigration, they must be prepared for the consequences, such as higher costs for services or a less efficient system.
“We expect to see net migration decline from the peaks of the past few years, but it will likely remain above 300,000 annually unless significant policy changes occur.”
‘Immigration will remain a key factor in shaping the UK’s demographic future’
Meanwhile Steve Ballinger, from UK-based immigration think tank British Future argues that the future of immigration will depend on both domestic and international factors.
He said: “Geopolitical instability, changes in the global economy, and the political climate in the UK will all play a role in shaping migration flows.
“But one thing is clear: immigration will remain a key factor in shaping the UK’s demographic future.
“Without immigration, the population would be falling in the UK, and it would also be ageing faster than it is, meaning fewer people working and paying taxes to support public services.”
However, despite the significant benefits of immigration, Ballinger acknowledged the pressures it places on various sectors, especially housing.
He said: “We don’t have enough houses. We’ve got a housing crisis already. The influx of people adds to the strain on housing, schools, and healthcare systems.
“These add to the strains on housing, schools, and healthcare systems, which are already under pressure.”
Ballinger also highlighted the importance of managing the social implications of immigration.
He argued that as migration continues, it will lead to a more diverse society, which requires strong integration and social cohesion strategies.
“If we have more and more migration, we’re going to have a more diverse society, and that means it gets even more important that we get integration and social cohesion right,” Ballinger said.
He pointed to the summer riots, which took place in multiply cities against immigrants after the tragic incident in Southport, as an example of how social tensions can arise when these issues are not properly addressed.
Ballinger called for a more thoughtful and transparent approach to immigration policy.
“The big change needs to be in political culture and the way that we talk about immigration,” he explained.
He stressed that the government should stop making unrealistic promises and instead engage the public in an open discussion about managing immigration levels.
He added: “You need to have a deliberate strategy for how we’re going to make sure that we have strong social cohesion, it takes work, that takes deliberate work, and it needs a strategy for the government on how we’re going to do that investment.”
‘Asylum made up only 8% of immigration over the last year’
Ballinger said: “According to our research, there’s a strong possibility that the public might not even notice if work visas are going down, because what they’re mainly thinking about when they’re thinking about immigration is asylum and asylum made up only 8% of immigration over the last year.
“If we have more and more migration, we’re going to have a more diverse society, and that means it gets even more important that we get integration and social cohesion right.
“Last summer, with the racist riots, when you had people terrifying asylum seekers and the local Muslim communities, it showed how social cohesion can fray and can break down if you don’t pay attention to it.
“We need to invest in a long term for social cohesion, so that we can help to ensure that people can live well together in a diverse society.”
Joining the ‘club’ takes time
Yesim Engin, an immigrant and an experienced executive coach, moved to the UK from Dubai almost four years ago with her husband and two children.
Engin specializes in leadership and team coaching, working with executives and companies.
For her, moving to the UK wasn’t just about building a life, it was about positioning herself at the centre of her profession.
“The UK is the hub for coaching globally,” she explained. “I wanted to continue my career in a place where I could grow and be at the heart of the industry.”
Being in the UK helped her work grow on a global scale, however, building credibility as a coach in a country where English isn’t her first language took time.
“Coaching is centred here, and doing a job in English where it’s not your native language took some adjustment. But after 1.5 years, the seeds I planted began to grow,” she said.
Adapting to life in a new country wasn’t without its challenges. The family faced difficulties in finding suitable accommodation when they first arrived.
Engin volunteered as a mentor at the Home Office and focused on self-improvement.
She added: “Moving to a new country is always a process. Joining the ‘club’ takes time.
“We came here to build a life, and we’re happy. We don’t feel excluded or out of place. The natural beauty, quality of life, and stability here are wonderful. Living in a global city like London is a great pleasure.”
Ozge Guner Soyluer, an industrial engineer, moved to the UK in 2016 with her husband under a skilled worker visa, seeking better work-life balance and international experience.
Now living in Woking, Surrey, with their twins, she reflects on the challenges of integrating into a new country and building a future.
Her four-year-old daughter, who has autism, benefited from access to special needs education, though finding a place wasn’t immediate.
She said: “We came for better opportunities, especially for our children. The education system here has been a key factor.
“It took us nine months, but despite the limited spots, she was accepted. We didn’t face any injustice in the process.
“This is a place where you can truly build a better future, especially for a disadvantaged child.
“As long as you integrate and follow the unwritten rules, you can live peacefully here. Everyone respects each other, and there’s no room for chaos.”
Looking ahead, the UK faces the dual challenge of managing its changing demographic while addressing the associated socioeconomic impacts.
The latest population estimates from the ONS provide essential insight into the future direction of the UK’s demographic trends.
With immigration now driving the majority of population growth, the findings emphasize the need for in-depth discussions on migration policy and its significant role in shaping the country’s future.
The future of immigration in the UK will depend on striking a balance—supporting economic growth while ensuring that public services and social integration can keep pace with an expanding and more diverse population.
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