Pupil numbers in London are projected to fall dramatically in the next decade, with new data predicting an over 10% decrease expected by 2033.
Data published by the Greater London Authority (GLA) estimates that from the 2024 academic year onwards pupil numbers are set to decline every year, despite having increased each year since 2011.
This trend is thought to be due to declining births and rising prices which are driving families out of the capital, and throws the financial future of schools into question.
Head of analysis at Education Policy Institute, Jon Andrews, said: “Falling birth rates mean that the number of pupils in primary schools is in decline and the number of pupils in secondary schools is expected to fall within the next few years.
“As a result, falling pupil numbers can lower budgets for schools, while not lowering costs much, because these are largely fixed.
“At a time when school finances are already under pressure, school leaders may struggle to absorb any further reductions in their budgets.”
According to the Department for Education, in 2023 there were over half a million unfilled places in primary schools, up by around 100,000 in five years.
The number of children of all ages groups is expected to decline over the next few years, creating significant gaps in the class rooms of schools across London.
Areas such as Hackney are in danger of becoming so-called ghost areas as young couples are choosing to not have children, putting local schools under threat of closure.
Funding for schools is mostly allocated per-pupil, which means fewer children translates into lower budgets.
It is a fact which may make it harder for schools to provide the same level of service, or even force them to close.
According to GLA data, London has seen an earlier and greater fall in primary school children as compared to all other regions in England.
Office of National Statistics data puts London house prices as the most expensive in England by a significant margin, however, they are also declining the fastest out of any region.
A spokesperson for the Mayor of London said: “The housing crisis in particular is impacting the number of primary school pupils.
“Too many Londoners now feel they need to move out of the city to a family home they can afford.”
The projected data for pupil numbers predicts that the decline of children in the capital will only accelerate in the coming years.
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