All polls predict a third term for Sadiq Khan as London Mayor, but just how accurate has polling been in the past?
The most recent YouGov poll has predicted a 19 point win for the sitting mayor, with Khan on 46% and his closest rival, Conservative Susan Hall, on 27%.
The Green Party’s Zoë Garbett, 9%, Liberal Democrat Rob Blackie, 8%, and Reform’s Howard Cox, 6%, round out the top five.
While the voting system may have changed this election, there’s still a lot we can learn from previous races.
What does history tell us about London Mayor polls?
Khan was first elected as Mayor of London in 2016, when he became London’s third ever Mayor and first ethnic minority mayor.
That year Khan won 56.8% of second round votes against his rival, the Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith.
The YouGov poll which was conducted in the days leading up to the 2016 election stated that Khan would receive 57%, in the second round whereas Goldsmith would gain 43% of votes.
This poll was incredibly close to the result of the election, showing how accurate polling can be.
Khan was later re-elected as mayor in 2021 when he received 55.2% of second preference votes cast, compared to his rival Shaun Bailey who gained 41% of the vote share.
Khan’s percentage share of the votes decreased by only 1.6%, underlining his blatant popularity with London.
Interestingly, the final YouGov poll that year was over-optimistic with Khan’s success, stating he would receive 59% of second preference votes cast.
So where does that leave us in 2024?
And now to the present day where Khan will be battling for his position as London mayor for the third time.
It’s worth noting that the two preference system has been scrapped in between elections, replaced with one round of first past the post voting.
This means we only need to look at the headline figures.
As mentioned above, the most recent polling suggests that Khan is on track to win again, with a 19% lead in front of his opponent Hall.
However despite the strong lead, the mayor is not taking victory for granted.
Speaking at the Centre of London think tank’s annual conference, Khan said: “I’m under no doubt, this election will be the toughest yet.
“Not only will it be the first in London using the First Past The Post system, but also every Londoner will be forced to show photo ID to take part”.
As we have seen previously, polling can be both extremely accurate and over-optimistic towards Khan meaning we’ll just have to wait and see.
The election for London Mayor and London Assembly takes place on Thursday the 2nd of May.
Featured image: Red Dot on Unsplash
